Apr 22, 2019

“Melt-Up” May Be The Operative Word

We've been talking lately about the idea that big hedge funds and systematic traders have been caught on the wrong side of the stock market's recent run for the roses. The thinking is this fact alone could account for the lack of downside volatility and the relentless dip-buying that has Read More

Apr 19, 2019

Why No Retest?

Last week, we reviewed Marko Kolanovic's research showing the positioning of hedge funds and systematic traders. The bottom line here is the equity exposure of these managers continues to be at very low levels relative to history. But with the stock market indices a chip shot away from all-time highs, Read More

Apr 10, 2019

The Argument For Additional Upside

Stocks closed at a fresh cycle high on Friday as the S&P 500 has been enjoying a 7-day win streak, which is the longest in 18 months. Don't look now fans, but the venerable blue-chip index is now just 38 points or 1.3% away from its all-time high. And unless Read More

Jun 4, 2018

Goldilocks Remains In The House, But…

Good Monday morning and welcome back. Markets around the globe appear to be following Wall Street's lead in celebrating Friday's better-than expected Jobs report. A report that fit nicely in the Goldilocks category as far as the stock market is concerned. While the mood may prove fleeting given all the Read More

May 29, 2018

Time To Dust Off The Euro-Crisis Playbook?

Good morning and welcome back. One of the great things about taking some time away from the keyboard and your daily routine is it gives you time to reflect on the big picture stuff as well as what you are doing on a daily basis. On the latter, I've decided Read More

May 7, 2018

The Question: How Much is Enough?

In pondering the macro picture over the weekend, it occurred to me that the current environment can be summed up with one simple question: How much is enough? As in, how much do stock prices need to correct from their January blow-off highs in order to create a fairly valued Read More

Apr 30, 2018

The Next Big Fear Is…

At the end of last week's missive, I concluded with the idea that the stock market continues to adjust/adapt to the new macro outlook, which includes higher rates, higher inflation, a stronger economy, and perhaps peak earnings growth. This week, I believe it is important to add the idea that Read More

Apr 16, 2018

My Take: Stay The Course

From my seat, it is clear that the stock market continues to consolidate the gains enjoyed post-tax reform. Yes, it is true that things may have gotten a bit exuberant during January. And as a chart of the S&P 500 clearly shows, those gains have been "taken back" over the Read More

Apr 9, 2018

Best to “Ride it Out” (For Now)

There can be no denying that there are issues for traders to wring their hands over here. The possibility of a trade war with China is front and center, which, most assuredly, will go beyond tariffs and include items such as currency devaluation, a reduction in U.S. bond buying, etc. Read More

Apr 2, 2018

The Question Of The Day Is…

From my seat, the question of the day is whether or not we've seen the lows for the current corrective phase. I can actually argue both sides of this one as the indicator evidence has been and continues to be mixed. For example, the bulls argue that the declines seen Read More

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